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Cine va fi preşedintele CJ Hunedoara?

David şi Gligor

Adrian David şi Dorin Gligor, două săbii în aceeaşi teacă

Începînd de miercuri, 17 iunie, Consiliul Judeţean Hunedoara va avea un nou preşedinte. Acesta va fi ales indirect, de către consilierii judeţeni, pe baza noii legi a alegerilor locale.

Cine va fi noul preşedinte al CJ Hunedoara? Există doar două variante de răspuns:

Dorin Oliviu Gligor (PNL, fost PDL)

sau

Adrian Nicolae David (PNL, fost UNPR)

 

Puţină aritmetică

În prezent, Consiliul Judeţean Hunedoara are 31 de consilieri judeţeni, dintre care doi îndeplinesc funcţiile executive de vicepreşedinţi – adică exact Gligor şi David, ambii din „noul” PNL. În şedinţa din 17 iunie, probabil înainte de votul pentru preşedinte, se va invalida mandatul unui consilier PNL (fost UNPR), Cosmin Costa, aşa încît în momentul decisiv al votului pentru preşedinte, vor fi 30 de consilieri judeţeni cu drept de vot. Preşedintele CJ se alege cu votul majorităţii simple a consilierilor judeţeni, aşadar e nevoie de 16 voturi PENTRU noul preşedinte. Iată componenţa politică a CJ Hunedoara, la momentul votului de miercuri:

PNL „vechi” = 11 consilieri

PDL „vechi” = 6

PNŢCD = 1

PSD = 6

UNPR = 3

Independenţi = 3

 

Prima concluzie

Este lesne de observat că DACĂ „noul” PNL (adică „vechiul” PNL + PDL) şi-ar păstra coeziunea internă şi ar vota disciplinat, conform deciziilor conducerii partidului, ar face regula în CJ Hunedoara (17 voturi) şi ar obţine, fără nicio problemă, funcţia de preşedinte şi ambii vicepreşedinţi. Preşedinte ar deveni Adrian David, unul dintre vicepreşedinţi ar fi Dorin Gligor iar celălalt vicepreşedinte ar fi tot de la PNL. Nu ar fi nevoie de negocieri cu alte partide şi nici de compromisuri.

Este varianta în care PNL ia totul: preşedintele şi cei doi vicepreşedinţi. End of story.

 

DACĂ…

DACĂ „noul” PNL ar fi unit şi ar acţiona disciplinat, conform protocolului de fuziune PNL-PDL, preşedinte ar deveni Adrian David. Protocolul prevede că acolo unde funcţia de preşedinte de CJ, devenită vacantă, a aparţinut „vechiului” PNL, „noul” PNL va susţine pentru ocuparea funcţiei de preşedinte tot un consilier din „vechiul” PNL. O regulă injustă şi ilogică, în cazul de faţă, dar REGULĂ. Ilogică pentru că Adrian David (fost UNPR), ca şi Dorin Gligor (fost PDL), au devenit consilieri judeţeni pe listele aceleiaşi alianţe politice, USP (PDL+UNPR+PNŢCD) deci, teoretic, au acelaşi pedigree politic la momentul intrării în CJ Hunedoara. Acum, pe trasee diferite, ambii au devenit membri ai „noului” PNL. Aici este marea discuţie – contestarea unei prevederi evident contestabile: care este PNL-istul mai pur-sînge? Cel care vine de la UNPR (trecînd prin „vechiul” PNL) sau cel care vine de la PDL?

Trebuie să recunoaştem că e o temă politică majoră, de mare fineţe, a cărei rezolvare ar ţine, mai degrabă, de o echipă de cercetători din domeniul traseelor şi mutaţiilor genetice, care să preleveze şi să compare ADN-ul celor doi cu al răposaţilor Brătieni şi să dea un verdict just, incontestabil.

Deci avem, pe de o parte, un regulament de funcţionare (imperfect şi discutabil) al „noului” PNL – dar REGULAMENT, deci obligatoriu – care l-ar face preşedinte CJ Hunedoara pe Adrian David, iar pe de cealaltă parte avem ambiţiile politice (justificate sau nu – este o altă discuţie) ale lui Dorin Gligor. Din confruntarea acestor interese divergente a apărut o sciziune majoră în „noul” PNL, unde doi candidaţi se bat pentru aceeaşi funcţie.

Cine are de cîştigat din această luptă internă din PNL ? PSD, evident, care intră în negocierile de susţinere pentru David sau pentru Gligor.

Jocul PSD

Cine dă mai mult? (Nu vorbim de sponsori şi de bani, aici e treaba DNA-ului să fie pe fază la cumpăratul de consilieri). Politic, tot ce poate obţine PSD din aceste negocieri e un post de vicepreşedinte al CJ Hunedoara. Şi îl obţine în orice situaţie, fie că-l susţine pe David, fie pe Gligor.

De aceea, PSD a avut tot interesul să sprijine, informal şi mediatic, divergenţele dintre liberali. E drept că şi vîrfurile PNL Hunedoara s-au lăsat antrenate în acest joc. Foarte inteligent din partea lor! Luni la rînd, acţionînd după o strategie perversă şi discutabilă, principalul organ de presă şi propagandă controlat de Gligor a cultivat, constant, apropierea acestuia şi a facţiunii PDL de PSD şi de Laurenţiu Nistor, preşedintele PSD. Pare evident că există o înţelegere subterană, destul de veche, în această zonă. Concomitent, au fost atacaţi, de-a valma, justificat sau nu, colegii lui Gligor din „vechiul” PNL. Intenţia de a menţine o stare conflictuală în PNL e lesne de observat.

Iată de ce eu cred că PSD îi va da voturile lui Dorin Gligor. Şi mai e un motiv, încă şi mai puternic, de natură strategică, pe termen lung – adică anul electoral 2016. Dacă Dorin Gligor va candida (şi eu cred că va candida), contrar voinţei conducerii politice a PNL, el va fi, cel mai probabil, exclus din PNL. Destabilizarea PNL este o temă strategică majoră pentru PSD, deci PSD va acţiona în acest sens. Iată cum ar arăta aritmetica votului, în cazul în care PSD îl va susţine pe Gligor:

PDL + PSD + UNPR + Independenţi = 18 – Dorin Gligor ajunge preşedinte CJ Hunedoara.

Şi Gligor va vedea ce se va mai întîmpla după aceea. Ar avea un an de stat în funcţie. PNL îşi va permite să excludă un preşedinte de Consiliu Judeţean, aşa cum a ameninţat? E un joc foarte riscant pe care l-ar face Gligor dar singurul mod de a-şi satisface ambiţiile politice. Riscant va fi şi pentru PNL să excludă un preşedinte de CJ şi un co-preşedinte al organizaţiei judeţene. Va fi un scandal uriaş iar PSD are tot interesul să-l provoace, în perspectiva alegerilor din 2016, cînd se va bate pentru un mandat lung, de 4 ani, la preşedinţia Consiliului Judeţean Hunedoara.

Pentru toate aceste motive, eu cred că aceasta va fi varianta de vot în 17 iunie, cu Gligor susţinut de PSD. Există şi un interes din zona economică pentru această combinaţie, pe care nu doresc să-l detaliez acum.

Tot ca variantă de lucru e posibilă şi o înţelegere PNL – PSD, în care PSD obţine un vicepreşedinte. E varianta cea mai puţin riscantă, atît pentru PNL cît şi pentru PSD, la care ar adera şi PNŢCD şi independenţii. Aritmetica votului în acest caz ar fi următoarea:

PNL + PSD + UNPR + PNŢCD + Independenţi = 24 – Adrian David ajunge preşedinte CJ Hunedoara.

Desigur, toate aceste calcule pur aritmetice pot fi date peste cap de interesele personale ale fiecărui consilier în parte. Votul este secret şi niciun partid nu acţionează ca o armată ordonată. Vor fi trădări, vor fi combinaţii pe care nicio analiză politică raţională nu le-ar putea cuprinde, căci elementele subiective sînt mult prea multe şi imprevizibile. Pe lîngă toate acestea, negocierile vor continua pînă la intrarea în sală a consilierilor, miercuri. Suspansul va fi menţinut pînă după numărarea voturilor. Un singur lucru e cert: de miercuri, 17 iunie, preşedintele CJ Hunedoara se va numi fie Adrian David, fie Dorin Gligor.

Alin BENA

 

 

 

Comments

comments

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